Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CLT -1400 WGA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -12.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -10.8 (-5.8) | 139.3 (+5.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -10.4 (-5.4) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -10.1 (-5.1) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -9.8 (-4.8) | 136.7 (+8.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-8 |
| Away | 1-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#216) | -10.8 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#239) | -2.13 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#227) | -2.93 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#237) | 0.391 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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