Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | OAK +1000 MSU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +19 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -17.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -14.5 (-4.5) | 134.3 (+0.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -13.5 (-5.5) | 132.6 (+2.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -15.2 (-3.8) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -15.5 (-3.5) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSU 79 – 70 OAK |
| Dec 19, 2023 | MSU 79 – 62 OAK |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MSU 67 – 54 OAK |
| Dec 22, 2021 | MSU 90 – 78 OAK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MSU 109 – 91 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | 15.2 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#191) | 2.89 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#172) | 3.79 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#155) | 0.647 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 24.7% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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