Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -7.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 140.9 (+27.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -8.5 (-3.5) | 145.0 (+23.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -5.4 (-6.6) | 142.1 (+25.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.0 (-7.0) | 142.5 (+25.5) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSU 79 – 70 OAK |
| Dec 18, 2024 | MSU 77 – 58 OAK |
| Dec 19, 2023 | MSU 79 – 62 OAK |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MSU 67 – 54 OAK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MSU 109 – 91 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#65) | 14.4 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#39) | 3.81 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#43) | 5.46 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#18) | 0.704 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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