Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | MSU -1700 OAK +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -12.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -11.3 (+5.7) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -14.9 (+2.1) | 136.2 (+4.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -11.5 (+5.5) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.6 (+5.4) | 136.6 (+4.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSU 79 – 70 OAK |
| Dec 18, 2024 | MSU 77 – 58 OAK |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MSU 67 – 54 OAK |
| Dec 22, 2021 | MSU 90 – 78 OAK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MSU 109 – 91 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#28) | 4.6 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | 0.99 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#62) | 1.48 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#139) | 0.577 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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