Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -7000 OAK +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -23.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -17.6 (-4.6) | 148.2 (-27.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -19.0 (-6.0) | 148.4 (-27.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -19.6 (-6.6) | 148.0 (-27.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -19.7 (-6.7) | 148.2 (-27.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSU 79 – 70 OAK |
| Dec 18, 2024 | MSU 77 – 58 OAK |
| Dec 19, 2023 | MSU 79 – 62 OAK |
| Dec 22, 2021 | MSU 90 – 78 OAK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MSU 109 – 91 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#68) | -10.8 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#52) | -2.51 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#59) | -3.29 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#28) | 0.379 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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