Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -3200 OAK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -16.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.8 (-4.8) | 149.0 (-0.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -15.5 (-6.5) | 150.4 (-1.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -13.5 (-4.5) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -14.9 (-5.9) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | MSU 77 – 58 OAK |
| Dec 19, 2023 | MSU 79 – 62 OAK |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MSU 67 – 54 OAK |
| Dec 22, 2021 | MSU 90 – 78 OAK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | MSU 109 – 91 OAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#13) | 2.1 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#9) | 1.08 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.47 (#10) | 1.02 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#4) | 0.606 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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