I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
The Field House · December 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ACU -9.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money ETAM +360 / ACU -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETAM win
Actual ETAM +1 135 Won
Massey ACU -2.6 (+3.6)
Massey Totals 139.2 (-4.2)
Bradley-Terry 14%
Weighted B-T 8%
Baseline Plus ML ACU -1.8 (+2.8) 139.6 (-4.6) 37%
Baseline ML ACU -0.9 (+1.9) 139.8 (-4.8) 49%
Baseline Tuned ML ACU -1.0 (+2.0) 138.3 (-3.3) 42%
Efficiency Plus ML ACU -3.2 (+4.2) 136.2 (-1.2) 36%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2022 ACU 8364 ETAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETAM ACU
Overall 5-26 16-16
Conference 3-17 8-8
Home 4-10 10-5
Away 1-16 5-10
Neutral 0-0 1-1
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak W1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.4 67.6
Avg Pts Against 74.9 71.0
Massey -9.6 (#320) -2.7 (#206)
Bradley-Terry -2.32 (#336) 0.31 (#145)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.21 (#338) 0.11 (#157)
RPI 0.410 (#316) 0.518 (#137)
Shooting & Four Factors ETAM ACU
FG% 41.8% 44.7%
3PT% 30.8% 30.4%
REB / G 31.1 28.9
OREB / G 9.9 8.6
AST / TO 0.68 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.5% 48.8%
TOV% 25.4% 17.9%
ORB% 28.7% 27.6%
FT Rate 18.6% 35.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.9% 57.4%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 20.8%
DRB% 66.2% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 28.0% 37.7%

Game Analysis

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