Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -185 CCU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.2 (-5.2) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -0.3 (-4.7) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -1.1 (-3.9) | 142.1 (-1.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -0.1 (-5.1) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | NCAT 85 – 82 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 3-15 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#314) | -4.4 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#334) | -1.59 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.06 (#334) | -2.52 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#318) | 0.403 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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