Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | CCU -500 NCAT +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -9.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -6.6 (-9.6) | 153.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -6.7 (-9.7) | 153.4 (+13.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -6.4 (-9.4) | 152.0 (+15.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -6.0 (-9.0) | 153.0 (+14.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | CCU 73 – 68 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-11 | 4-7 |
| Away | 1-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#314) | -13.8 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#334) | -2.46 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#330) | -3.47 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#354) | 0.382 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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