Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -5000 GMU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -19.5 (+1.5) | 133.2 (-18.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -19.4 (+1.6) | 134.3 (-19.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.7 (+2.3) | 133.5 (-18.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -14.6 (+6.4) | 131.9 (-16.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 18-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#3) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#14) | 0.04 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#11) | 1.15 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#24) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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