Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -2000 MRMK +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -14.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -11.1 (-5.1) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -10.6 (-4.6) | 135.8 (+6.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -10.8 (-4.8) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -13.4 (-7.4) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 64.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#79) | -3.4 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#80) | 0.04 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#103) | -0.01 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#97) | 0.503 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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