Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum · December 18, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread USU -10.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money USU -425 / UCSD +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total USU win
Actual UCSD +2 148 Lost
Massey USU -8.8 (-10.8)
Massey Totals 148.1 (-0.1)
Bradley-Terry 97%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML USU -9.8 (-11.8) 141.3 (+6.7) 73%
Baseline ML USU -10.1 (-12.1) 142.6 (+5.4) 72%
Baseline Tuned ML USU -9.8 (-11.8) 143.5 (+4.5) 79%
Efficiency Plus ML USU -10.3 (-12.3) 141.0 (+7.0) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USU UCSD
Overall 26-8 30-5
Conference 15-5 18-2
Home 15-2 13-2
Away 7-4 12-2
Neutral 4-2 5-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 78.8 77.5
Avg Pts Against 70.5 63.0
Massey 13.7 (#34) 9.2 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 4.19 (#4) 1.46 (#72)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.02 (#4) 1.53 (#91)
RPI 0.651 (#15) 0.558 (#83)
Shooting & Four Factors USU UCSD
FG% 47.3% 44.4%
3PT% 31.7% 35.6%
REB / G 40.4 32.1
OREB / G 15.0 9.2
AST / TO 1.50 1.54
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 53.2%
TOV% 16.5% 13.4%
ORB% 42.3% 26.0%
FT Rate 30.0% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 52.7%
Opp TOV% 22.6% 24.2%
DRB% 71.1% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 15.5% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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