Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USU -425 UCSD +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -8.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -9.8 (-11.8) | 141.3 (+6.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.1 (-12.1) | 142.6 (+5.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -9.8 (-11.8) | 143.5 (+4.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -10.3 (-12.3) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#34) | 9.2 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#4) | 1.46 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.02 (#4) | 1.53 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#15) | 0.558 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 42.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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