Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +30 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -35.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -30.4 (-0.4) | 152.6 (+21.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -31.4 (-1.4) | 149.3 (+24.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -24.9 (+5.1) | 150.6 (+23.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -27.1 (+2.9) | 151.4 (+22.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 24.3 (#2) | -6.8 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#28) | -0.83 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#16) | -1.77 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#7) | 0.464 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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