Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USF -800 BCU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -7.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -6.5 (-14.5) | 145.4 (+0.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.2 (-14.2) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -5.9 (-13.9) | 139.9 (+6.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -10.1 (-18.1) | 142.7 (+3.3) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2021 | USF 75 – 54 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#224) | -6.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#136) | -1.40 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#170) | -1.80 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#151) | 0.441 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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