They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Charles E. Smith Center · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GW -12.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money GW -900 / LAF +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +20 144 Won
Massey GW -8.9 (+11.1)
Massey Totals 141.3 (+2.7)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML GW -9.0 (+11.0) 142.5 (+1.5) 81%
Baseline ML GW -8.2 (+11.8) 141.0 (+3.0) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML GW -8.5 (+11.5) 140.8 (+3.2) 79%
Efficiency Plus ML GW -9.8 (+10.2) 142.9 (+1.1) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW LAF
Overall 21-13 13-20
Conference 9-9 7-11
Home 13-4 10-6
Away 5-6 3-14
Neutral 3-3 0-0
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 67.8
Avg Pts Against 68.6 69.7
Massey 0.3 (#153) -4.4 (#245)
Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#127) -0.61 (#230)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.62 (#138) -0.81 (#221)
RPI 0.499 (#169) 0.477 (#212)
Shooting & Four Factors GW LAF
FG% 45.4% 40.3%
3PT% 32.1% 35.3%
REB / G 35.5 33.7
OREB / G 10.4 9.6
AST / TO 1.18 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 47.7%
TOV% 16.7% 15.9%
ORB% 30.5% 26.0%
FT Rate 34.0% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 20.0% 17.2%
DRB% 67.9% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 27.9%

Game Analysis

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