I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Patrick Gymnasium · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -4.5 Home covered
O/U 129.5 Over
Money UVM -215 / M-OH +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual UVM +8 142 Won
Massey M-OH -0.2 (+8.2)
Massey Totals 127.4 (+14.6)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 24%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -0.9 (+7.1) 129.7 (+12.3) 53%
Baseline ML UVM -1.9 (+6.1) 130.9 (+11.1) 60%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -1.3 (+6.7) 131.4 (+10.6) 53%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -1.3 (+6.7) 131.7 (+10.3) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2023 M-OH 7069 UVM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM M-OH
Overall 21-12 25-9
Conference 13-3 14-4
Home 13-3 15-1
Away 7-8 6-7
Neutral 1-1 4-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.5 77.7
Avg Pts Against 65.0 73.3
Massey -5.5 (#268) -1.1 (#174)
Bradley-Terry -0.93 (#259) 0.83 (#108)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.15 (#250) 0.89 (#118)
RPI 0.458 (#257) 0.530 (#124)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM M-OH
FG% 39.6% 45.2%
3PT% 31.4% 34.8%
REB / G 32.2 31.8
OREB / G 8.6 9.5
AST / TO 0.81 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.7% 52.8%
TOV% 19.6% 17.7%
ORB% 25.1% 27.9%
FT Rate 21.0% 14.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 56.2%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 22.1%
DRB% 68.3% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 20.0% 19.5%

Game Analysis

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