Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread JOES -12.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money JOES -900 / AMER +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total JOES win
Actual JOES +27 141 Won
Massey JOES -11.7 (+15.3)
Massey Totals 141.3 (-0.3)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline Plus ML JOES -10.0 (+17.0) 141.7 (-0.7) 83%
Baseline ML JOES -10.9 (+16.1) 143.2 (-2.2) 83%
Baseline Tuned ML JOES -10.0 (+17.0) 141.5 (-0.5) 82%
Efficiency Plus ML JOES -12.4 (+14.6) 142.8 (-1.8) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2023 JOES 6953 AMER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings JOES AMER
Overall 22-13 22-13
Conference 11-7 13-5
Home 13-5 14-2
Away 4-6 5-10
Neutral 5-2 2-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 67.8
Avg Pts Against 68.6 68.5
Massey 2.4 (#121) -5.0 (#257)
Bradley-Terry 0.33 (#144) 0.32 (#146)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.21 (#151) 0.17 (#155)
RPI 0.519 (#137) 0.532 (#122)
Shooting & Four Factors JOES AMER
FG% 43.9% 44.0%
3PT% 33.3% 34.0%
REB / G 36.2 29.1
OREB / G 10.2 8.2
AST / TO 1.41 0.86
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 51.8%
TOV% 16.8% 20.0%
ORB% 28.7% 25.9%
FT Rate 22.3% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 15.6%
DRB% 71.6% 68.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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