Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -1000 AMER +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -19.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -15.3 (+0.7) | 142.6 (-20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -14.1 (+1.9) | 142.0 (-20.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -15.0 (+1.0) | 142.7 (-20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -13.3 (+2.7) | 142.9 (-20.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | JOES 84 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#76) | -7.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#99) | -2.57 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#65) | -3.66 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.363 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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