They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena · December 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread JOES -14.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money JOES -1000 / AMER +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total JOES win
Actual JOES +16 122 Won
Massey JOES -19.5 (-3.5)
Massey Totals 142.6 (-20.6)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML JOES -15.3 (+0.7) 142.6 (-20.6) 86%
Baseline ML JOES -14.1 (+1.9) 142.0 (-20.0) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML JOES -15.0 (+1.0) 142.7 (-20.7) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML JOES -13.3 (+2.7) 142.9 (-20.9) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 JOES 8457 AMER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings JOES AMER
Overall 21-14 16-16
Conference 9-9 10-8
Home 14-3 8-7
Away 3-10 8-9
Neutral 4-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 75.5 67.6
Avg Pts Against 70.5 67.8
Massey 6.2 (#76) -7.6 (#308)
Bradley-Terry 0.92 (#99) -2.57 (#332)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.14 (#65) -3.66 (#334)
RPI 0.516 (#150) 0.363 (#344)
Shooting & Four Factors JOES AMER
FG% 44.9% 43.6%
3PT% 36.2% 34.2%
REB / G 38.1 34.8
OREB / G 9.6 11.6
AST / TO 1.40 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.0% 51.6%
TOV% 18.0% 18.3%
ORB% 27.7% 33.2%
FT Rate 17.3% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.1% 56.1%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 16.9%
DRB% 71.7% 73.4%
Opp FT Rate 20.0% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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