Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -175 VCU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.7 (+3.3) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -2.9 (+4.1) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.8 (+4.2) | 148.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.2 (+4.8) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | UNM 81 – 78 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#75) | 10.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#82) | 0.98 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#71) | 1.51 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#97) | 0.555 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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