Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -10000 TOL +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +29 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -28.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -25.6 (+3.4) | 138.9 (-11.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -24.7 (+4.3) | 143.0 (-16.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -23.0 (+6.0) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -22.9 (+6.1) | 137.7 (-10.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#6) | -3.1 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#64) | 0.30 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#49) | 0.01 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#61) | 0.492 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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