Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +145 MEM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -5.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.0 (-0.0) | 124.2 (+1.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.4 (+0.4) | 132.2 (-6.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -2.6 (+0.6) | 131.3 (-5.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -3.0 (+1.0) | 127.5 (-1.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MEM 77 – 54 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#110) | 12.9 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#87) | 3.51 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#78) | 4.29 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#84) | 0.721 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 44.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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