Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -2000 NIU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -19.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -18.5 (+2.5) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -16.3 (+4.7) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -16.7 (+4.3) | 146.1 (-5.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -15.1 (+5.9) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#159) | -14.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#180) | -2.18 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#150) | -2.58 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#184) | 0.369 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 18.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 34.1% |
Game Analysis
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