What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
CEFCU Arena · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -15.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money ILST -2000 / NIU +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +21 141 Won
Massey ILST -19.0 (+2.0)
Massey Totals 146.5 (-5.5)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -18.5 (+2.5) 147.6 (-6.6) 89%
Baseline ML ILST -16.3 (+4.7) 146.6 (-5.6) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -16.7 (+4.3) 146.1 (-5.1) 89%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -15.1 (+5.9) 146.2 (-5.2) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST NIU
Overall 22-14 6-25
Conference 10-10 2-16
Home 12-4 5-10
Away 5-7 1-15
Neutral 5-3 0-0
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak W3 W1
Avg Pts For 74.9 67.4
Avg Pts Against 72.4 79.5
Massey -0.1 (#159) -14.9 (#354)
Bradley-Terry -0.08 (#180) -2.18 (#332)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.21 (#150) -2.58 (#326)
RPI 0.494 (#184) 0.369 (#351)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST NIU
FG% 47.9% 35.6%
3PT% 38.9% 29.4%
REB / G 32.8 30.8
OREB / G 7.1 7.1
AST / TO 1.24 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.8% 42.7%
TOV% 16.2% 17.0%
ORB% 23.3% 18.0%
FT Rate 27.0% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 54.9%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 16.7%
DRB% 74.0% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 34.1%

Game Analysis

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