Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -4000 SAM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +32 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -12.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -14.0 (+18.0) | 164.8 (-4.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -12.5 (+19.5) | 162.7 (-2.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -13.4 (+18.6) | 162.7 (-2.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -11.8 (+20.2) | 160.9 (-0.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#23) | 6.5 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#105) | 1.59 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#73) | 1.68 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#106) | 0.558 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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