Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Memorial Gymnasium (TN) · December 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread VAN -28.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money VAN -100000 / CIT +4000
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAN win
Actual VAN +52 158 Won
Massey VAN -27.3 (+24.7)
Massey Totals 148.3 (+9.7)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML VAN -26.1 (+25.9) 145.4 (+12.6) 91%
Baseline ML VAN -26.3 (+25.7) 148.8 (+9.2) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML VAN -22.8 (+29.2) 147.7 (+10.3) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML VAN -22.2 (+29.8) 149.8 (+8.2) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAN CIT
Overall 20-13 5-25
Conference 8-10 0-18
Home 14-3 5-12
Away 3-7 0-12
Neutral 3-3 0-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L4 L24
Avg Pts For 78.9 63.0
Avg Pts Against 74.3 76.9
Massey 9.8 (#58) -13.3 (#349)
Bradley-Terry 2.75 (#26) -4.19 (#362)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.63 (#28) -5.74 (#363)
RPI 0.597 (#39) 0.289 (#364)
Shooting & Four Factors VAN CIT
FG% 47.7% 42.5%
3PT% 30.2% 29.2%
REB / G 36.1 36.8
OREB / G 11.1 11.2
AST / TO 1.57 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 49.6%
TOV% 13.4% 21.7%
ORB% 31.0% 30.3%
FT Rate 26.3% 14.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 14.1%
DRB% 70.6% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 26.5%

Game Analysis

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