Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -120 UCSB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -4.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -1.5 (+3.5) | 136.2 (-18.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.6 (+3.6) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.8 (+3.8) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -0.5 (+1.5) | 135.4 (-17.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | LMU 78 – 74 UCSB |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UCSB 68 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | LMU 81 – 76 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2020 | UCSB 69 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#246) | 3.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#158) | 0.18 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#146) | 0.06 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#158) | 0.466 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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