Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -130 UCSB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -4.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -4.1 (+0.9) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -4.6 (+0.4) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -3.1 (+1.9) | 136.4 (+20.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | LMU 78 – 74 UCSB |
| Dec 19, 2024 | LMU 60 – 58 UCSB |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UCSB 68 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 8, 2020 | UCSB 69 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#142) | 2.7 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#111) | 1.33 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#109) | 2.20 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#56) | 0.708 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 31.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 46.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.