Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
The Thunderdome · November 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -3.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money UCSB -170 / LMU +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCSB win
Actual LMU +4 152 Lost
Massey UCSB -5.9 (-9.9)
Massey Totals 153.4 (-1.4)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSB -4.8 (-8.8) 143.3 (+8.7) 66%
Baseline ML UCSB -4.6 (-8.6) 143.8 (+8.2) 63%
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -6.0 (-10.0) 141.7 (+10.3) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2024 LMU 6058 UCSB
Dec 16, 2023 UCSB 6859 LMU
Dec 12, 2020 LMU 8176 UCSB
Dec 8, 2020 UCSB 6958 LMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCSB LMU
Overall 18-14 15-17
Conference 11-9 6-12
Home 11-4 10-8
Away 5-8 4-7
Neutral 2-2 1-2
Last 5 2-0 4-0
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 76.7 72.2
Avg Pts Against 73.7 72.6
Massey 2.7 (#128) 4.0 (#108)
Bradley-Terry 2.14 (#32) 2.34 (#24)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.92 (#42) 3.30 (#27)
RPI 0.583 (#89) 0.528 (#153)
Shooting & Four Factors UCSB LMU
FG% 52.2% 49.3%
3PT% 49.0% 41.3%
REB / G 30.0 34.2
OREB / G 10.0 8.8
AST / TO 1.95 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 62.6% 59.2%
TOV% 14.1% 17.9%
ORB% 33.9% 27.6%
FT Rate 28.7% 16.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 59.2% 45.3%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 19.8%
DRB% 67.8% 73.9%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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