Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -170 LMU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.8 (-8.8) | 143.3 (+8.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.6 (-8.6) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.0 (-10.0) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | LMU 60 – 58 UCSB |
| Dec 16, 2023 | UCSB 68 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | LMU 81 – 76 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2020 | UCSB 69 – 58 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#128) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#32) | 2.34 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#42) | 3.30 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#89) | 0.528 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 49.0% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.6% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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