Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -135 MAN +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -2.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -0.9 (-14.9) | 128.2 (+17.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.7 (-16.7) | 128.9 (+17.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -3.1 (-17.1) | 129.6 (+16.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -1.8 (-15.8) | 127.3 (+18.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | WAG 103 – 101 MAN |
| Dec 31, 2023 | WAG 68 – 56 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#297) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#186) | -1.00 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#220) | -2.05 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.438 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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