Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | SCU -6000 SDAK +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +17 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -13.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -12.9 (+4.1) | 162.7 (+16.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -12.5 (+4.5) | 165.2 (+13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -13.8 (+3.2) | 164.7 (+14.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -15.7 (+1.3) | 162.8 (+16.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 86.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#78) | -1.3 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#84) | -0.47 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#86) | -1.03 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#47) | 0.473 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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