Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -340 UNCA +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -6.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.0 (+5.0) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.9 (+5.1) | 145.5 (+13.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -6.3 (+4.7) | 145.0 (+14.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.7 (+4.3) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | UNCW 83 – 66 UNCA |
| Nov 27, 2020 | UNCW 76 – 68 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#148) | -1.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#145) | 0.07 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#166) | 0.19 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#135) | 0.492 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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