Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -1300 FAU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -12.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -14.1 (+2.9) | 157.9 (-2.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -12.6 (+4.4) | 159.0 (-4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -13.3 (+3.7) | 158.5 (-3.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -12.3 (+4.7) | 155.7 (-0.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#24) | 6.6 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#19) | 0.92 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#27) | 1.81 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#19) | 0.580 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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