Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | DREX +800 PSU -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -12.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -7.3 (-3.7) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -8.0 (-3.0) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -6.8 (-4.2) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -7.8 (-3.2) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#160) | 16.9 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#147) | 1.74 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | 2.58 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#178) | 0.577 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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