I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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64–31 on winners spread MAE 9.4 95 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Indiana +5.0 132.2 68% 53–65 ✓
Mercer @ Georgia +10.5 133.6 83% 69–80 ✓
Rider @ Siena -8.7 128.1 21% 65–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Niagara -0.4 131.2 49% 72–67 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +8.1 143.4 77% 74–75 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield +0.4 151.6 52% 78–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Canisius +10.0 152.9 82% 73–93 ✓
George Washington @ South Carolina +4.6 149.4 66% 67–89 ✓
Bryant @ Brown +4.1 145.9 64% 69–66 ✗
Norfolk State @ VCU +15.0 136.4 91% 63–60 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Bethune-Cookman -3.8 144.5 36% 82–96 ✗
St. John's @ West Virginia -0.4 141.2 49% 79–73 ✓
Arkansas State @ Little Rock +11.1 173.0 84% 66–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +12.1 141.9 86% 85–82 ✗
Towson @ South Dakota State +2.7 129.2 60% 48–61 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU +14.6 148.0 91% 66–73 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Troy +3.7 144.1 63% 60–83 ✓
Iowa State @ DePaul -17.5 137.5 6% 99–80 ✓
Purdue @ Northwestern -8.0 141.0 23% 88–92 ✗
UConn @ Kansas +3.2 150.7 62% 65–69 ✓
Fresno State @ BYU +27.5 143.1 99% 56–85 ✓
North Dakota @ Cal State Fullerton +5.6 140.5 70% 54–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Portland +6.3 146.9 72% 70–81 ✓
San Diego State @ UC San Diego -10.3 152.4 17% 63–62 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Boise State -0.3 126.8 49% 60–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +16.8 143.8 94% 49–62 ✓
Syracuse @ Virginia +12.2 122.2 87% 62–84 ✓
Bucknell @ Penn State +18.8 139.8 96% 76–67 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -5.9 141.7 30% 71–55 ✓
Marquette @ Wisconsin -1.1 143.4 46% 64–75 ✗
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State -1.7 162.9 44% 77–88 ✗
Holy Cross @ Central Connecticut +17.6 137.9 95% 67–78 ✓
Lehigh @ UMBC +2.8 162.9 60% 87–92 ✓
South Florida @ Massachusetts +18.2 148.1 95% 56–66 ✓
Presbyterian @ VMI +3.1 149.3 61% 75–71 ✗
Florida State @ North Carolina +15.8 162.8 92% 70–78 ✓
Drexel @ Villanova +7.1 121.8 74% 57–55 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas +29.5 123.1 100% 48–79 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville +12.7 152.2 88% 89–91 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +18.6 153.9 95% 68–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +1.8 155.7 56% 85–77 ✗
Cornell @ Lafayette -8.9 150.3 21% 79–71 ✓
Saint Francis @ American University +13.0 137.1 88% 75–73 ✗
Bellarmine @ Ball State +2.5 130.3 59% 58–67 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +1.4 146.5 55% 71–57 ✗
Delaware @ Ohio +5.3 153.1 68% 73–74 ✓
Furman @ Princeton +23.9 155.2 99% 69–70 ✓
North Alabama @ Kansas State +15.8 162.8 92% 74–75 ✓
High Point @ North Florida -2.0 157.5 43% 86–79 ✓
Memphis @ Ole Miss -0.0 135.6 50% 77–80 ✗
Old Dominion @ Northeastern +7.8 150.2 76% 68–81 ✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina A&T -6.2 153.3 29% 85–68 ✓
Boston University @ Sacred Heart +11.5 138.4 85% 70–49 ✗
Grambling @ Dayton +26.0 137.0 99% 46–76 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo -8.3 136.1 22% 80–65 ✓
Binghamton @ Stonehill -1.9 153.6 43% 79–64 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -7.4 150.3 25% 68–72 ✗
Colgate @ Arizona +26.3 140.0 99% 55–82 ✓
San José State @ Montana -1.6 131.2 44% 58–75 ✗
Jacksonville @ Georgia Southern -1.3 150.6 45% 81–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ North Carolina Central +9.8 137.5 81% 85–82 ✗
Wright State @ Davidson +4.3 161.1 65% 73–82 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +15.3 142.7 92% 58–69 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland +10.1 153.3 82% 98–77 ✗
Nicholls @ Louisiana Tech +17.1 144.2 94% 55–68 ✓
UT Martin @ McNeese +22.6 159.9 98% 80–91 ✓
Saint Louis @ Southern Illinois +12.5 143.3 87% 62–101 ✓
Wagner @ Stony Brook +9.5 126.6 81% 60–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT -0.6 167.2 48% 71–68 ✓
Michigan @ Oregon +7.6 158.8 76% 83–86 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Kentucky +20.8 158.3 97% 80–73 ✗
Illinois @ Rutgers +7.3 124.1 75% 76–58 ✗
NC State @ Boston College +8.6 150.3 78% 84–78 ✗
Missouri State @ Drake +6.3 150.5 72% 57–74 ✓
Winthrop @ Coastal Carolina -6.3 149.1 28% 90–87 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Northern Colorado +2.6 154.0 59% 71–75 ✓
Bowling Green @ Southern Indiana -1.1 137.8 46% 54–52 ✓
Harvard @ Loyola Chicago -0.4 144.8 49% 53–75 ✗
Lipscomb @ UCF +8.8 156.9 79% 57–72 ✓
Pacific @ Northern Arizona +14.4 129.1 91% 58–78 ✓
Pennsylvania @ La Salle -2.9 158.7 40% 92–93 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Vanderbilt +8.2 155.2 77% 59–78 ✓
Delaware State @ Loyola Maryland +8.2 139.9 77% 79–73 ✗
Houston Christian @ Rice +16.7 169.1 94% 56–65 ✓
Cal Poly @ Idaho -0.1 142.2 50% 70–85 ✗
Portland State @ Washington State +10.4 140.8 83% 61–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State +21.1 136.8 97% 75–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern +0.9 152.9 53% 64–66 ✓
TCU @ Georgetown -4.6 158.1 34% 84–83 ✓
Northwestern State @ Baylor +30.5 167.5 100% 40–91 ✓
Charleston @ Florida Atlantic +23.0 148.4 98% 74–90 ✓
William & Mary @ Richmond +18.9 152.9 96% 69–88 ✓
Long Island University @ Florida International +7.4 146.9 75% 59–74 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +0.9 146.8 53% 79–74 ✗
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +11.4 151.8 85% 63–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.