← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–8 on winners
spread MAE 13.1
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Alabama
@
Jacksonville State
|
+10.8 | 138.4 | 84% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Fordham
|
+13.1 | 160.8 | 88% | 52–80 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
East Carolina
|
-4.0 | 150.9 | 36% | 66–74 | ✗ |
UMBC
@
Coppin State
|
-11.9 | 148.5 | 14% | 70–89 | ✗ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Minnesota
|
+10.5 | 148.5 | 83% | 64–97 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Hofstra
|
+16.1 | 144.2 | 93% | 63–82 | ✓ |
New Hampshire
@
Sacred Heart
|
+5.7 | 150.4 | 70% | 90–84 | ✗ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Oklahoma
|
+35.3 | 167.8 | 100% | 86–107 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
UIC
|
+19.8 | 119.0 | 96% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Chicago State
|
+4.8 | 138.5 | 67% | 76–69 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Rice
|
-1.9 | 173.4 | 43% | 78–98 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
North Alabama
|
+12.2 | 145.2 | 87% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Kansas City
|
+9.7 | 142.9 | 81% | 44–74 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Samford
|
+3.0 | 157.0 | 61% | 65–88 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Oklahoma State
|
-8.3 | 143.6 | 22% | 79–65 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Texas
|
+13.5 | 132.5 | 89% | 58–77 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
Utah
|
+7.7 | 154.2 | 76% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
UTSA
|
+1.2 | 168.5 | 54% | 83–86 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Oregon State
|
+4.4 | 139.4 | 66% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
UCLA
|
+15.9 | 127.8 | 93% | 65–66 | ✓ |
St. Thomas
@
Western Michigan
|
+4.8 | 127.6 | 67% | 65–51 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
Liberty
|
+13.7 | 147.2 | 89% | 76–67 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Xavier
|
-8.1 | 132.6 | 23% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.