And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–18 on winners spread MAE 10.2 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Buffalo @ James Madison +38.5 169.1 100% 66–81 ✓
Drexel @ Lafayette +0.8 115.7 53% 69–48 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Coastal Carolina +3.0 145.1 61% 70–72 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Tulane +5.5 151.3 69% 77–98 ✓
Morgan State @ High Point +23.5 173.3 98% 59–77 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vermont +21.4 127.1 97% 53–64 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne +2.6 151.9 59% 62–66 ✓
Marist @ Iona +2.6 138.4 59% 68–64 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +7.8 145.2 76% 68–65 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +9.8 157.4 81% 99–106 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Columbia +12.3 138.2 87% 57–69 ✓
Saint Francis @ Lehigh +21.5 141.1 97% 62–61 ✗
NJIT @ George Mason +27.3 136.2 99% 68–86 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +6.6 147.1 73% 59–77 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +21.6 152.4 98% 74–103 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +16.7 143.7 94% 71–75 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -9.2 147.5 20% 65–50 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +15.4 144.9 92% 71–79 ✓
Princeton @ Bucknell -17.1 127.7 6% 85–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Cornell +15.3 159.6 92% 87–91 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Queens University +1.3 135.6 55% 80–83 ✓
Boston University @ UAlbany +12.6 139.1 87% 72–86 ✓
Radford @ Old Dominion +2.2 138.2 58% 68–69 ✓
American University @ Harvard +21.3 149.5 97% 75–80 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio State +26.1 140.3 99% 61–88 ✓
Maine @ Holy Cross -5.5 135.1 31% 72–57 ✓
VMI @ Navy +0.2 138.1 51% 47–67 ✓
Tennessee @ North Carolina +5.2 142.3 68% 92–100 ✓
Texas A&M @ Virginia -1.6 127.1 44% 47–59 ✗
Florida @ Wake Forest -1.8 167.6 44% 71–82 ✗
Richmond @ Wichita State +2.5 141.5 59% 68–80 ✓
Tarleton State @ Stephen F. Austin +12.2 143.2 87% 68–66 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Rio Grande Valley -13.4 151.8 11% 79–69 ✓
Evansville @ Missouri State +4.6 140.8 66% 78–90 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso -5.7 144.4 30% 83–65 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +11.7 165.7 86% 90–70 ✗
Bradley @ Murray State -6.7 152.0 27% 72–79 ✗
Bellarmine @ Louisville +1.5 144.3 55% 68–73 ✓
Morehead State @ Austin Peay +1.4 130.9 55% 61–50 ✗
Davidson @ Charlotte +11.1 122.4 84% 85–81 ✗
Tennessee State @ Alabama A&M -7.5 150.0 25% 83–85 ✗
Dayton @ SMU +4.3 136.4 65% 65–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +2.1 146.4 58% 71–86 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +1.9 129.3 57% 72–78 ✓
Merrimack @ Georgetown +5.2 145.7 68% 67–69 ✓
Binghamton @ Colgate +4.3 135.7 65% 49–84 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Utah +10.7 142.9 83% 91–66 ✗
Colorado @ Colorado State +16.5 151.8 93% 83–88 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTEP +11.5 141.5 85% 67–63 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico +2.9 144.5 60% 65–74 ✓
Sam Houston @ Arizona State +7.6 144.5 75% 61–78 ✓
North Florida @ Iowa +25.3 159.4 99% 78–103 ✓
Denver @ Idaho -4.3 163.5 35% 67–65 ✓
Duke @ Arkansas -4.1 159.8 36% 75–80 ✗
Boston College @ Vanderbilt -5.7 147.6 30% 80–62 ✓
Georgia @ Florida State +15.2 145.2 92% 68–66 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Auburn +10.2 149.9 82% 57–74 ✓
San José State @ Cal Poly -5.7 129.5 30% 77–81 ✗
Northern Colorado @ San Diego +14.7 143.0 91% 72–74 ✓
Montana @ Nevada +24.7 145.7 99% 66–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ UC Santa Barbara +10.3 148.5 82% 59–70 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Pacific -2.2 140.9 42% 80–69 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Loyola Marymount +20.4 139.0 97% 63–90 ✓
Eastern Washington @ USC +18.1 149.8 95% 78–106 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +6.8 153.8 73% 58–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Butler +11.8 136.8 86% 95–103 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.