Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | LOU -220 BELL +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -1.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.6 (+3.4) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.3 (+2.7) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.1 (+2.9) | 140.6 (+0.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -0.2 (+4.8) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | LOU 100 – 68 BELL |
| Nov 10, 2022 | BELL 67 – 66 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-12 |
| Home | 7-11 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#294) | -1.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#265) | -0.51 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#290) | -0.13 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#260) | 0.460 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 37.0% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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