All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
KFC Yum! Center · November 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -5.0 Push
O/U 137.0 Over
Money LOU -220 / BELL +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total LOU win
Actual LOU +5 141 Won
Massey LOU -1.8 (+3.2)
Massey Totals 146.4 (-5.4)
Bradley-Terry 65%
Weighted B-T 33%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -1.6 (+3.4) 142.0 (-1.0) 57%
Baseline ML LOU -2.3 (+2.7) 141.9 (-0.9) 60%
Baseline Tuned ML LOU -2.1 (+2.9) 140.6 (+0.4) 57%
Efficiency Plus ML LOU -0.2 (+4.8) 142.5 (-1.5) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 20, 2024 LOU 10068 BELL
Nov 10, 2022 BELL 6766 LOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LOU BELL
Overall 8-24 8-23
Conference 3-17 4-12
Home 7-11 6-7
Away 1-10 2-16
Neutral 0-3 0-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L8 L2
Avg Pts For 72.0 67.5
Avg Pts Against 79.1 76.8
Massey -6.5 (#294) -1.9 (#211)
Bradley-Terry -1.16 (#265) -0.51 (#229)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.29 (#290) -0.13 (#193)
RPI 0.439 (#260) 0.460 (#226)
Shooting & Four Factors LOU BELL
FG% 42.0% 41.4%
3PT% 27.8% 35.3%
REB / G 40.2 30.3
OREB / G 14.5 8.0
AST / TO 0.76 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.2% 48.3%
TOV% 18.1% 17.1%
ORB% 36.9% 23.2%
FT Rate 37.0% 15.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 17.9%
DRB% 69.4% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.3% 20.7%

Game Analysis

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