Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +170 DUKE -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -3.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.2 (+7.2) | 151.3 (+3.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.4 (+7.4) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.4 (+8.4) | 152.7 (+2.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.3 (+8.3) | 153.6 (+1.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 71 ARK |
| Mar 27, 2022 | DUKE 78 – 69 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#119) | 12.8 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#199) | 1.36 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#204) | 3.00 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#189) | 0.550 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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