Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +600 DUKE -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -15.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.6 (-1.4) | 160.9 (-9.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -6.5 (-2.5) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -6.9 (-2.1) | 150.1 (+0.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -7.1 (-1.9) | 157.7 (-6.7) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | ARK 80 – 75 DUKE |
| Mar 27, 2022 | DUKE 78 – 69 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#39) | 28.0 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#78) | 3.71 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#97) | 6.13 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#107) | 0.633 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 52.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 2.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 61.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 38.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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