Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USD -175 UNCO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USD -14.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -8.6 (-6.6) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -10.4 (-8.4) | 141.5 (+4.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -10.2 (-8.2) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -11.8 (-9.8) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#161) | -7.3 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#182) | -1.67 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#188) | -3.46 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#225) | 0.389 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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