Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | BUT -160 TTU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +8 | 198 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -13.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+59.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -8.3 (-0.3) | 139.6 (+58.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -10.7 (-2.7) | 137.7 (+60.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -11.0 (-3.0) | 138.5 (+59.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -10.9 (-2.9) | 141.4 (+56.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#22) | 6.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#86) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#69) | 1.77 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#71) | 0.580 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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