Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | SMU -120 DAY +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -4.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.2 (-4.2) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.3 (-6.3) | 137.3 (-9.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.6 (-5.6) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.0 (-6.0) | 135.3 (-7.3) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | DAY 74 – 62 SMU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SMU 77 – 69 DAY |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SMU 66 – 64 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#108) | 5.5 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#126) | 1.75 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#103) | 2.38 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#94) | 0.666 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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