But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
UD Arena · December 5, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread DAY -1.5 Away covered
O/U 139.0 Under
Money DAY -125 / SMU +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual SMU +2 130 Lost
Massey SMU -4.1 (+2.1) — —
Massey Totals — 152.0 (-22.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 82% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 82% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -2.0 (-0.0) 147.3 (-17.3) 40% ✓
Baseline ML SMU -2.7 (+0.7) 145.3 (-15.3) 33% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SMU -2.4 (+0.4) 141.5 (-11.5) 26% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2023 DAY 65 – 63 SMU
Nov 12, 2022 DAY 74 – 62 SMU
Dec 9, 2021 SMU 77 – 69 DAY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY SMU
Overall 14-10 11-6
Conference 9-7 7-4
Home 8-3 6-2
Away 4-6 5-2
Neutral 2-1 0-2
Last 5 1-0 3-0
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 69.8 74.6
Avg Pts Against 67.8 68.1
Massey -3.9 (#199) 9.6 (#23)
Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#120) 0.65 (#92)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.34 (#126) 0.94 (#91)
RPI 0.542 (#94) 0.407 (#192)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY SMU
FG% 51.1% 51.0%
3PT% 46.7% 40.8%
REB / G 30.0 46.3
OREB / G 6.0 14.0
AST / TO 1.07 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.5% 58.4%
TOV% 23.6% 19.9%
ORB% 23.1% 41.6%
FT Rate 23.4% 31.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 43.2%
Opp TOV% 22.3% 22.8%
DRB% 64.9% 76.4%
Opp FT Rate 8.2% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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