Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | DAY -125 SMU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -4.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.0 (-0.0) | 147.3 (-17.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.7 (+0.7) | 145.3 (-15.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.4 (+0.4) | 141.5 (-11.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | DAY 65 – 63 SMU |
| Nov 12, 2022 | DAY 74 – 62 SMU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SMU 77 – 69 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-4 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#199) | 9.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#120) | 0.65 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#126) | 0.94 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#94) | 0.407 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 46.7% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 46.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 41.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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