Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -700 SMU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -17.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -9.2 (+2.8) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -12.1 (-0.1) | 136.9 (-0.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | DAY 65 – 63 SMU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SMU 77 – 69 DAY |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SMU 66 – 64 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#69) | 1.0 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#70) | 0.43 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#77) | 0.62 (#94) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 39.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 85.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.9% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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