Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -1.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.8 (+5.2) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.6 (+5.4) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.3 (+5.7) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.4 (+5.6) | 137.7 (+8.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | DAY 65 – 63 SMU |
| Nov 12, 2022 | DAY 74 – 62 SMU |
| Dec 5, 2020 | SMU 66 – 64 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | 5.8 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#204) | 0.72 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#192) | 0.06 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#231) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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