Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -26.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.0 Over |
| Money | IOWA -7000 UNF +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +25 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -25.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -21.6 (+3.4) | 159.7 (+21.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -18.2 (+6.8) | 153.0 (+28.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -20.6 (+4.4) | 153.0 (+28.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -21.0 (+4.0) | 156.5 (+24.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#26) | -6.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#54) | -1.52 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#49) | -2.48 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#35) | 0.361 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.19 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 11.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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