Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | NEV -1100 MONT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -26.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -19.3 (-8.3) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -20.3 (-9.3) | 145.6 (-2.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -21.6 (-10.6) | 144.5 (-1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -21.2 (-10.2) | 144.4 (-1.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#15) | -4.8 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#22) | -1.58 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.95 (#15) | -2.77 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#24) | 0.467 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.21 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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