Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -2500 CARK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +27 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | LMU -21.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -17.3 (+9.7) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -16.2 (+10.8) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -17.7 (+9.3) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -17.9 (+9.1) | 141.6 (+11.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#137) | -13.4 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#209) | -4.56 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#201) | -6.51 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#223) | 0.272 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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