Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | ASU -278 SHSU +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -7.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -5.0 (+12.0) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -6.1 (+10.9) | 141.5 (-2.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -6.5 (+10.5) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -7.5 (+9.5) | 144.0 (-5.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#167) | -1.3 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#61) | -0.08 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#56) | -0.36 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#55) | 0.473 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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