Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | AUB -455 VT +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -9.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -7.7 (+9.3) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -8.3 (+8.7) | 146.4 (-15.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.9 (+9.1) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.1 (+10.9) | 145.6 (-14.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#46) | 6.5 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#60) | 1.70 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#55) | 2.73 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#84) | 0.554 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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