Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -160 TA&M +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -1.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -1.1 (+13.1) | 122.1 (-16.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.2 (+10.8) | 129.5 (-23.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.1 (+11.9) | 129.0 (-23.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -1.3 (+13.3) | 124.5 (-18.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#74) | 15.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#62) | 3.20 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#78) | 4.60 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#70) | 0.691 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 46.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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